Understanding Why Terrorist Operations Succeed or Fail

Understanding Why Terrorist Operations Succeed or Fail

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This paper argues that the success or failure of a terrorist operation — or the likelihood that a future attack will succeed — can be best understood by thinking about the match or mismatch between three key sets of characteristics: (1) terrorist group capabilities and resources, (2) the requirements of the operation it attempted or is planning to attempt, and (3) the relevance and reliability of security countermeasures.