North Korean Decisionmaking: Economic Opening, Conventional Deterrence Breakdown, and Nuclear Use

North Korean Decisionmaking: Economic Opening, Conventional Deterrence Breakdown, and Nuclear Use

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The authors examine (1) the experiences of North Korea and three similar authoritarian regimes — China, Vietnam, and Cuba — to forecast why and how North Korea might adopt a new economic model; (2) what might happen if conventional deterrence fails on the Korean Peninsula; and (3) what might lead North Korea to use nuclear weapons.