Measuring Power, Power Cycles, and the Risk of Great-Power War in the 21st Century

Measuring Power, Power Cycles, and the Risk of Great-Power War in the 21st Century

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Growing concern that U.S. power has been declining renews long-standing questions about how we should measure national power, which nations have the most, which states are gaining and losing power, and when such shifts might portend conflict. The authors illustrate a quantitative, scenario-based approach for policymakers, assess the impact of shocks on the balance of power, and identify periods when shifts in the balance could portend conflict.