Making the right decisions at turning points can be the difference between victory and defeat. The Navy asked RAND if it could identify “forks in the road” — future decision points that may require a significant change in direction. After defining the attributes of such forks, the authors use an interview process and an opportunity risk analysis to identify nine forks that the Navy should consider first. These nine diverse forks were followed by two high-risk forks-unmanned vehicles and space-based capabilities-that could yield high payoffs.
