Estimating the Quality of Air Force Volunteers

A description of an analytical model of airmen supply in the context of occupational choice. The model is used to examine the distribution of volunteers in terms of the Armed Forces Qualification Test scores of new airmen over time. By considering the manner in which the Air Force creams the volunteer population to obtain its recruits, the model can be used to explain the variation in the quality of recruits under different situations. Findings show that the ratio of military pay to civilian pay is positively correlated with the changing quality of recruits over time. This is an important finding because it indicates that recruit quality does respond to pay increases and provides the Air Force with a device for controlling enlistee quality. Recruit demand, on the other hand, is negatively correlated with respect to quality, which underscores the validity of the creaming process.