Denial Without Disaster—Keeping a U.S.-China Conflict over Taiwan Under the Nuclear Threshold: Vol. 3

As a result of China's secure second-strike nuclear retaliatory capability, the United States must now, more than ever, consider how to tailor its conventional military operations to avoid triggering Chinese nuclear first use. In this report—part of a series—the authors consider the potential thresholds and drivers of Chinese nuclear first use in a conflict scenario in the context of China's evolving nuclear force posture and ongoing nuclear buildup.