Comparison of Group Judgment Techniques with Short-Range Predictions and Almanac Questions

Comparison of Group Judgment Techniques with Short-Range Predictions and Almanac Questions

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An experiment designed to discover whether the results of laboratory studies dealing with general (almanac) information are relevant to the applied case when the true answer is unknown. Using short-range prediction questions as subject matter, the experiment indicates that, in general, Delphi procedures are at least as effective with short-range prediction as they have been for almanac material.